By: Jim Williams – Capital Sports – Senior Columnist
The looming possibility of Florida State, Clemson, UNC, and Miami departing in 2029 has sparked speculation about the ACC’s future. Yet unlike the Pac‑12, the ACC is built on deeper institutional alignment, stronger media markets, and a broader sports portfolio. With committed members like Duke, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Virginia, Virginia Tech, SMU, Syracuse, Louisville, and Boston College, the conference has the foundation to remain a Power Four player well into the next decade.
ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips Ready to Expand
With the Big 12 aggressively expanding in recent years, Phillips has signaled that the ACC will not sit idly by. He has stressed that the conference is prepared to add new schools to maintain strength and relevance. This proactive stance is designed to prevent the ACC from being weakened by departures, ensuring that the league remains a Power Four player.
Expansion Blueprint: USF, Tulane, Memphis, UConn, Army, and Navy
The ACC’s resilience lies in smart expansion.
- USF (Tampa Bay): Strong academics, commitment to raising the bar in athletics, and a brand new on campus stadium and major media market. Hosted many major events including Super Bowls, CFP Playoff Title Games, Men’s and Women’s Basketball Final Four.
- Tulane (New Orleans): Academic pedigree, rising football profile, and a Gulf Coast market with national appeal. Like Tampa New Orleans is a big event town and like Tampa the ACC have options for their major events.
- Memphis (Tennessee): Basketball tradition, football growth, and commercial ties across the Mid‑South.
- UConn (Northeast): Elite basketball brand, vastly improved football program, and access to the New York City market for the big events.
- Navy (Maryland): National prestige, Mid‑Atlantic market, and the iconic Army–Navy Game.
- Army (New York): Historic brand, Northeast market reach, and national following.
Together, these programs provide geographic diversity, institutional strength, and market value that ensure the ACC remains viable—even if its current flagship programs depart.
Exit Fees and the ESPN Bridge to 2036
Should FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Miami leave in 2029, the exit fees owed to the ACC would provide critical financial stability. Each team would owe the conference $111 million if they left in the 2028-2029 season, 2029-2030 season would cost them $93 million and 2030-2036 leaving the ACC is $75 million per exiting member.
These funds would help bridge the final six years of the ESPN media rights deal, ensuring the conference maintains competitive budgets and visibility. Also, each school being added would take either a reduced share or forego the fee entirely for the final six years of the deal.
By 2036, the ACC would be positioned to enter the open media market from a position of strength. A far cry from how the PAC 12 handled their media deal.
Setting the Stage for 2037: Apple and Beyond
Looking ahead, the ACC could align with Apple, led by Duke alum Tim Cook, to secure a groundbreaking streaming partnership likely to buy the ACC Network. Apple’s global reach would elevate ACC content, while traditional and emerging partners—CBS, NBC, Fox, Warner Discovery, The CW, Amazon, and YouTube—could provide hybrid broadcast‑streaming packages. This diversified approach ensures the ACC avoids the pitfalls that doomed the Pac‑12. These players want to stay together, and they have learned from the Pac -12 mistakes
Why Notre Dame Will Stay
A stable ACC with Pitt, Boston College, Wake Forest, SMU, Duke, NC State, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Louisville while adding USF, Memphis, Army, Navy, UConn, and Tulane, Notre Dame’s position as a football independent alongside full ACC membership in other sports becomes even more logical.
The Irish have deep historical ties with many of these programs. They’ve faced Pitt 74 times (Notre Dame leads 51–21–1), Navy 98 times (Notre Dame leads 82–13–1), and Army 52 times (Notre Dame leads 40–8–4), rivalries that stretch back over a century. The “Holy War” with Boston College has been played 28 times (Notre Dame leads 18–9), while the Irish have met Georgia Tech 38 times (Notre Dame leads 31–6–1). Out west, Notre Dame has squared off with Stanford 38 times (Notre Dame leads 23–14) and Cal 5 times (Notre Dame leads 5–0), and more recently, they split two meetings with USF (1–1).
This tapestry of rivalries and connections underscores why Notre Dame would remain independent in football yet thrive as an ACC member in other sports. The Irish’s national brand is built on independence, but their scheduling history shows natural alignment with ACC schools and new additions. Pitt, Navy, Army, Boston College, and Georgia Tech are long-standing rivals; Stanford and Cal add West Coast tradition; and USF represents a fresh Florida partnership. By staying independent in football while anchoring other sports in the ACC, Notre Dame preserves its national scheduling freedom while reinforcing historic and modern ties to ACC institutions.
Why the ACC Won’t Collapse Like the Pac‑12
- Institutional alignment: Academic pedigree with Duke, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Cal, and Stanford.
- Media markets: Atlanta, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Boston, DC–Virginia corridor, Bay Area, plus new hubs in Tampa, New Orleans, Memphis, and New England.
- NIL maturation: Rising programs have stabilized fundraising, narrowing the gap with traditional powers.
- Scheduling continuity: Rivalries like UVA–VT, NC State–Wake, and Duke–BC remain intact while new cross‑market matchups add intrigue.
The ACC’s depth across football, basketball, and Olympic sports ensures it remains a strong, multi‑sport conference with national relevance—even in a post‑2029 landscape.
Final Thought’s
Unlike the Pac 12 Commissioner Phillips and members of the ACC have had a number of conversations about the “what if’s” should the Big Ten and the SEC were to come poaching. So, far the vast majority of members, many of them recall the breakup of the Big East have no interest in heading for the Big 12 because these schools understand that the PAC 12 members made a mistake, had they held together just one year later Turner Sports lost the NBA and had cash for college sports and with an Apple deal in place along with a TNT, TBS, truTV deal and maybe a CW deal as well they could have been still around. The members value the future together and are willing to wait out the ESPN deal rather than bolt for a few dollars more in the Big 12.
